Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
