Just eight weeks ago that the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or the source for the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, while the victories have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side which has strung together 10 in a row, they look strangely fragile – yet right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the ball into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
